• Nicholas Mazza

Trump Beating Biden Nationally and in Swing States in New Poll After COVID Diagnosis

Updated: Oct 5, 2020

In a new poll conducted by Sunday Express President Trump is beating Joe Biden nationally and in swing states. The poll, that correctly predicted Trump beating Clinton in the last Presidential election has Trump winning in a greater landslide than 2016.

Electoral College Vote Projection (if election voting mirrored these poll results)

270 needed to win

  • Trump = 320 [picks-up Minnesota, New Hampshire & a single Maine electoral vote]

  • Biden = 218

Enthusiasm Gap?

Q. “Are you strongly or very enthusiastic about your choice of candidate?”

  • Trump voters = 83%

  • Biden voters = 49%

From Express:

The poll was completed after the news broke that President Trump and his wife Melania have been infected by Covid-19.

But 68 percent said the illness would not affect their vote while 19 percent said they were “more likely” to support Trump and only 13 percent “less likely”.

Almost two thirds said they felt sympathy and concern for the President while 38 percent said him getting the disease was “karma” in an indication of the current divisive nature of US politics.

Crucially, Mr Trump’s lead in key swing states including Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin remains at 4 percent by 47 percent 43 percent.

This gives a projected Electoral College split of 320 to Trump and 218 to Biden.

While other polls have Biden ahead, the Democracy Institute, which correctly predicted Brexit and Trump’s win in 2016, only considers people who identify as “likely voters” rather than all registered voters and also asks about the so called shy vote.

This shows that 77 percent of Trump supporters would not admit it to friends or family members.

Other controversies appear to have had little impact on the election with around 8 in 10 voters saying that the nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court has changed their position, although Trump got more favourable support 12 percent, than unfavourable 9 percent.

After a first bad tempered debate in the election, 32 percent said Trump won and 18 percent Biden but half thought it was a draw and more than 7 in 10 said it made no difference to how they would vote.

Law and order remains the top issue in the election after riots linked to the black lives matter protests with 32 percent identifying it as their number one concern.

However, the economy is closing the gap with 30 percent putting it top as the effects of coronavirus continue to bite.

Trump outscores Biden on the economy with 70 percent thinking that the economy is bouncing back and 60 percent to 40 percent trusting the President over his rival on the issue.

Meanwhile, the poll reveals that former Mr Biden has a “reality problem” with twice as many people giving credit to reality TV star Kim Kardasian for prison reform than the former Vice President.

Asked who has had a more positive impact on criminal justice 41 percent say Trump, the same number say Kim Kardasian and just 18 percent say Biden.

Democracy Institute director Patrick Basham said: “When a reality TV star beats you in a poll on an important policy question, you know your campaign has a problem.

“We find twice as many voters give Kim Kardashian credit for advancing the cause of criminal justice reform – an especially important issue among Black voters – than rate Biden’s contribution. 

“Trump and Biden’s respective standings on this specific issue epitomise Biden’s overarching Achilles’ Heel in this election: comparatively low support and enthusiasm for his candidacy among Black voters. To beat Trump, Biden needs nine in 10 Black votes, and lots of Black voters to cast ballots. Currently, he’s positioned to win only eight in ten, with two out of ten Black voters ready to support Trump, and overall Black turnout looking to be flat, at best.”

National Popular Vote

  • Trump (Republican) = 46%

  • Biden (Democrat) = 45%

  • Jorgensen (Libertarian) = 3%

  • Hawkins (Green) = 1%

  • Undecided = 5%

  • White voters: Trump = 52%   Biden = 45% 

  • Black: Trump 18%    Biden = 78% 

  • Hispanic: Trump 40%    Biden = 50% 

Battleground States – Popular Vote

Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin

  • Trump (Republican) = 47%

  • Biden (Democrat) = 43%

  • Jorgensen (Libertarian) = 4% 

  • Hawkins (Green) = 1%

  • Undecided = 5%

Florida – Popular Vote

  • Trump (Republican) = 48%

  • Biden (Democrat) = 44%

  • Jorgensen (Libertarian) = 2%

  • Hawkins (Green) = 1%

  • Undecided = 5%

Minnesota – Popular Vote

  • Trump (Republican) = 46%

  • Biden (Democrat) = 44%

  • Jorgensen (Libertarian) = 2%

  • Hawkins (Green) = 2%

  • Undecided = 6%

New Hampshire – Popular Vote

  • Trump (Republican) = 45%

  • Biden (Democrat) = 43%

  • Jorgensen (Libertarian) = 5%

  • Hawkins (Green) = 2%

  • Undecided = 5%

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