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Trump Cruising to Another Victory in November according to Bookies and Historically Accurate Models



“It appears that the RNC messaging — softer image for Trump and ‘law and order’ — has resonated somewhat,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “Biden is now countering that. But obviously, since he just started, we can’t know if it is working yet.”

Bookies took note, according to betting aggregators at US-Bookies.com who said Wednesday that for the first time since early June, Mr. Trump is the favorite to win a second four-year term.


Alex Donohue, a US-Bookies political betting analyst, said bookies now have Mr. Trump as a -120 favorite to win, versus -100 odds for Mr. Biden.

Trump has completed a remarkable comeback to reclaim his position as the favorite to win the U.S. election again, as markets suggested that Biden was more likely to win ahead of the conventions,” Mr. Donahue said. “However, convention season saw Trump receive a boost in the odds, while Biden’s took a hit.


"With two months to go, Trump is in a prime position to remain in the White House for four more years,” he said.


Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth's "primary model" that accurately predicted the last five out of six Presidential election, has Trump winning re-election.


This model was more reliable than the polling in 2016, as most polls had Trump losing. Nortpoth's model is 25 for 27 since 1912.


“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Norpoth said. "This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced."


According to his model, which takes enthusiasm as a key indicator, Trump will win by an even greater margin than in 2016.



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